JULY 2026 Real Estate Recap
The median home price for Montgomery County Northwest came in at $595,000 in July, showing an eye-catching 48.8% increase from July 2025.
Sounds incredible, right?
Well…let's pump the brakes just a little. 😂
There were only 15 closed sales in this market during July.
And when you have a small number of transactions, the types of homes that happen to sell can dramatically affect the median.
In this case, the July sales were heavily weighted toward the higher end:
- 40% of sales were between $500,000–$749,999
- 20% were between $750,000–$999,999
- 6.7% were $1 million or more
That's roughly 10 of the 15 sales at $500,000 or higher.
So no, I would not interpret that 48.8% number to mean that homes throughout Northwest Montgomery suddenly increased in value by nearly 50%.
It tells us something different:
The homes that sold in July were much more heavily weighted toward the higher price ranges.
And this is a perfect example of why you can't look at one month's median price in isolation—especially when the number of sales is small.
Now, there are still some interesting trends here.
Active listings were up 15.8%, and closed sales increased 36.4%.
But homes averaged 69 days on the market and another 60 days to close, putting the total at 129 days.
And inventory sits at 8.1 months.
So buyers have choices, and sellers should be prepared for a longer marketing timeline.
The 48.8% number makes a great headline. The rest of the numbers tell the better story.
🎓 Montgomery ISD: A Much Broader Picture
Now let's look at Montgomery ISD.
Here we're dealing with a much larger pool of transactions: 168 closed sales in July.
That makes the numbers considerably more useful when we're trying to understand the broader local market.
The median price was $389,000, up 14.4% from July 2025.
Active listings were also up 14%, with 1,049 homes on the market.
And closed sales increased an impressive 22.6%.
That's a lot of activity.
But there's another side to the story.
Homes averaged 76 days on the market, followed by another 36 days to close.
That's 112 days from listing to closing, which is 24 days longer than last year.
Montgomery ISD also has 7.6 months of inventory, compared with 8.0 months in July 2025.
So what are we seeing?
More homes on the market. More sales. Higher median prices. But buyers are taking their time.
That's a much more nuanced market than simply saying, “Prices are up 14.4%!”
🌊 And Then There's Walden…
Now let's talk about Walden.
And this one is really interesting. 😉
Walden's median price came in at $329,000, down 2.1% from July 2025.
But look at what happened with sales:
🚀 33 homes closed—up 73.7% from last year.
That's a big jump.
At the same time, active listings were down 11.5%, with 170 homes on the market.
And months of inventory dropped from 10.4 months last July to 7.1 months this July.
That's a significant change.
So while the median price is slightly lower, we're seeing much stronger sales activity and considerably less inventory.
Homes averaged 69 days on the market, followed by just 26 days to close.
That's 95 days total, actually four days faster than last year.
So the Walden story isn't:
“Prices are down.”
It's:
Prices are slightly softer, but homes are selling—and inventory has tightened considerably.
That's a much more interesting story.
🔄 Three Local Markets. Three Different Stories.
And this is exactly why I keep saying:
Real estate is local. REALLY local.
Look at the differences.
Montgomery County Northwest
📈 Median price: up 48.8%*
📈 Sales: up 36.4%
📈 Inventory: up 15.8%
🏘️ 8.1 months of inventory
But only 15 sales, with a large percentage of those sales in the higher price ranges.
Montgomery ISD
📈 Median price: up 14.4%
📈 Sales: up 22.6%
📈 Inventory: up 14%
🏘️ 7.6 months of inventory
Walden
📉 Median price: down 2.1%
🚀 Sales: up 73.7%
📉 Inventory: down 11.5%
🏘️ 7.1 months of inventory
Three areas.
Three different stories.
And they're all happening at the same time.
🔍 What Does This Tell Us About Our Local Market?
I think July's numbers show us that our local market is active—but selective.
Buyers have choices in many areas, and they're not necessarily rushing into the first house they see.
Sellers can still sell, but pricing and presentation matter.
And the amount of time it takes to sell a home can vary significantly depending on the neighborhood, price range and competition.
That's why I don't want to look at a single statistic and declare:
“The market is up!”
or
“The market is down!”
Instead, we need to look at the combination of:
- Median price
- Inventory
- Closed sales
- Days on market
- Price range
- And, importantly, how many actual sales we're talking about
Because sometimes the headline number isn't the whole story.
Montgomery County Northwest's 48.8% increase is a perfect example.
🌞 And Now We're Heading Into August…
Of course, there's another factor entering the picture:
Back-to-school season.
Summer vacations are winding down.
School shopping is happening.
Registration and activities are beginning.
And parents everywhere are discovering that apparently one child needs approximately 37 different school supplies. 😂
It's completely normal for real estate activity to shift as we move from summer into August.
Some buyers will want to get settled before school gets too far underway.
Others will put their home search on hold until everyone gets back into a routine.
So I'll be watching August and September closely to see whether we're simply seeing normal seasonal changes or something bigger developing.
🏠 What Does This Mean If You're Buying or Selling?
If you're a buyer:
You have choices.
That gives you more opportunity to compare homes, negotiate and make a thoughtful decision.
But don't assume every seller is desperate.
A home that's priced correctly and shows well can still attract attention.
If you're a seller:
Today's market requires a strategy.
You need to know what you're competing against right now, not what your neighbor sold for six months ago.
Pricing, condition, presentation and marketing all matter.
And if your home has been sitting while similar homes are selling, that's information we need to pay attention to.
And if you're in Walden…
I'm definitely watching this one closely.
A 73.7% increase in closed sales, an 11.5% decrease in active listings, and inventory dropping from 10.4 to 7.1 months is a meaningful shift.
Now we need to see whether that trend continues.
📊 The Bottom Line
July doesn't give us one simple headline for Montgomery and Lake Conroe.
And honestly, that's a good thing.
Montgomery County Northwest, Montgomery ISD and Walden are each behaving a little differently.
Some prices are up.
Some are slightly down.
Sales are stronger across all three.
Inventory is moving in different directions.
And homes are taking different amounts of time to sell.
So when someone asks:
“Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market?”
My answer is increasingly:
“Tell me where, and tell me what you're buying or selling.” 😉
Because the closer we get to home, the more the numbers matter.
And that's why I don't just watch the headlines.
I watch the numbers—and I look at what is happening behind them.
🏡 For all your real estate needs, get Jacque!
Jacque Swanner | INC Realty
Serving Montgomery, Lake Conroe, DFW & beyond.
#GetJacque #INCrealty #MontgomeryTX #LakeConroe #WaldenOnLakeConroe #MontgomeryTXRealEstate #MontgomeryISD #TexasRealEstate #SayYesToTexas